The Russian military intervention in Syria’s civil war, which began in September 2015, surprised even the closest observers of Moscow’s foreign and security policy. The longstanding consensus view among Russia watchers was that the military would not be called upon to engage in expeditionary missions beyond the so-called near abroad, Russia’s immediate neighborhood in post-Soviet Eurasia. In Syria, Russia’s stakes in President Bashar al-Assad’s regime were clearly significant, but the idea that the Kremlin would risk its own forces to save it seemed farfetched. And yet that is precisely what occurred…

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